I know he was wrong.
He knew he was right.
The year is 1942 and the second World War is raging across Europe.
John jumped out of bed when he heard the sound. He’d been anxiously waiting to hear it all night. The hum of the jet engines grew louder, but he could already tell they weren’t as loud as they should have been.
As he counted the planes that landed, then looking to the sky for how many were to come, his heart began to sink and his sorrow began to swell. He knew that some of his friends had just lost their lives.
Whether it be through that same sorrow John felt, or a desire to achieve the mission, his commanding officers knew something had to be done.
Abraham Wald, a statistician, was tasked with figuring out how the Allies could better bolster their planes. And initially, the conclusion was clear… increase the amount of armour around the parts of the plane that had the most bullet holes.
But when John jumped out of bed again later that week, eager to hear a louder hum of the jet engines, he was met with the same sorrow he’d felt before. The increased armour hadn’t worked.
Perplexed. Abraham began to look at his data from a different perspective. Perhaps it was where the bullet holes weren’t, that shed the most light. Perhaps if the armour was increased around those areas, less planes would fall victim to enemy fire.
The above is a creative interpretation of how we came to understand something called survivorship bias, which is a logical fallacy that happens when when we assume that success tells the whole story.
It makes intuitive sense to replicate the behaviours and habits of successful stories, and to an extent, it works. But there are lessons we can learn from failures within our own stories, and the stories of others, that can help us improve mental health.
When I think about my Dad’s death and why it happened, it can be an endless rumination of what if. What’s worse, is that there’s almost no way to validate whatever conclusion I might draw.
What could have saved his life… If time were replayed and I missed that phone call again, what could have convinced him to think that life was worth living? In those final moments I know he was wrong, but he knew he was right…
Somewhere between these two opinions could be the key to improving mental health and unlocking the problem of suicide. And while it pays to look at what people with good mental health are doing, what are the people with poor mental health missing?
If we could learn from the people we’ve lost… what is it?
A Bloody Good Run
“Huge thanks to everyone who came down last night to watch @the.bloodrun and raise money for the Leukaemia foundation. It was great to hear the story behind the film and see something positive come out of something tragic. Callan and his crew were so genuine and it was great for the @runningforresilience community to connect and support the cause.
It was one Monday that The Dock will never forget ❤️”